Economic Richter Scale
Composite risk assessment based on 20 economic indicators vs historical baselines
StableModerateElevatedSevereCrisis
4.2
Moderate — Housing stress elevated, markets strong, employment solid
Monthly Summary — March 2026
Mixed signals: Markets soar while housing stays painful
The S&P 500 hit another all-time high at 5,842, up 12% year-to-date.
But the housing market continues to squeeze: 30-year mortgage rates sit at 6.8%,
more than double the 2021 lows. The average monthly payment on a new home is now $2,847 —
up $340/month from four years ago. Gas prices are stable at $3.24,
unemployment remains near historic lows at 3.9%, and consumer confidence
is holding at 104. Inflation has cooled to 2.8% but grocery
prices remain 22% above pre-pandemic levels. The economy is growing, but the gains aren't evenly distributed.
What This Means For You
↗
Your monthly mortgage payment is $340 higher than if you'd bought in 2021. Refinancing won't help until rates drop below 5%.
↘
Your 401(k) is at an all-time high. If you're invested in index funds, you're up ~12% this year alone.
→
Groceries cost 22% more than 2020 and they're not coming back down. Budget accordingly — this is the new baseline.
↘
Gas is stable at $3.24/gal. Your commute costs aren't changing. Road trips are affordable.
↘
If you're job hunting, the market is in your favor. 3.9% unemployment means employers are competing for workers.
30yr Mortgage Rate
6.8%
▲ up from 3.1% in 2021
Median Home Price
$412K
▲ +4.2% YoY
Housing Starts
1.42M
▬ flat
Avg Monthly Payment
$2,847
▲ +$340 vs 2021
10Y Treasury
4.28%
▬ stable
Gas Price /gal
$3.24
▬ stable
CPI Inflation
2.8%
▼ down from 9.1% peak
Consumer Confidence
104
▬ steady
Grocery Index
+22%
vs 2020 baseline
Unemployment
3.9%
near historic lows
Job Openings
8.7M
strong demand
Avg Hourly Wage
$34.27
▲ +4.1% YoY
Labor Participation
62.5%
▬ flat
GDP Growth (Q4)
2.8%
solid expansion
National Debt
$36.2T
▲ growing
Fed Funds Rate
4.50%
▬ holding
Presidential Approval
48%
▬ polarized
DJIA 42,847 ▲1.2% S&P 5,842 ▲0.8% NASDAQ 18,391 ▲1.4% 10Y 4.28% BTC $97,241 OIL $71.82 ▼0.3% GOLD $2,847 ▲0.6% GAS $3.24
DJIA 42,847 ▲1.2% S&P 5,842 ▲0.8% NASDAQ 18,391 ▲1.4% 10Y 4.28% BTC $97,241 OIL $71.82 ▼0.3% GOLD $2,847 ▲0.6% GAS $3.24